CHAPTER X
The next hours
The next hours
What the reference observers expect, hour by hour. The crew have added nothing, which is a first.
What the reference observers expect, hour by hour. The crew have added nothing, which is a first.
| Hour | Expected | Temp | Rain | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 pm | sunny | 47° | 0 % | 0 |
| 6 pm | partlycloudy | 46° | 0 % | 0 |
| 7 pm | partlycloudy | 44° | 0 % | 0 |
| 8 pm | partlycloudy | 43° | 0 % | 0 |
| 9 pm | partlycloudy | 43° | 0 % | 0 |
| 10 pm | fog | 42° | 0 % | 1 |
| 11 pm | partlycloudy | 41° | 0 % | 1 |
| 12 am | partlycloudy | 41° | 1 % | 2 |
| 1 am | cloudy | 41° | 1 % | 2 |
| 2 am | cloudy | 41° | 1 % | 2 |
| 3 am | cloudy | 40° | 1 % | 2 |
| 4 am | cloudy | 41° | 1 % | 2 |
| 5 am | cloudy | 40° | 1 % | 2 |
| 6 am | cloudy | 41° | 1 % | 2 |
| 7 am | cloudy | 41° | 1 % | 2 |
| 8 am | cloudy | 42° | 1 % | 2 |
| 9 am | cloudy | 43° | 1 % | 2 |
| 10 am | cloudy | 45° | 1 % | 2 |
Four forecasts for Monday, filed today and graded the day after.
| Forecaster | Method | High / low | Rain | Says |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The reference observers | the National Weather Service | 52° / 45° | 3 % | cloudy |
| Vell | the ECMWF model, run in Europe, read carefully | 50° / 42° | 3 % | overcast |
| Orm | the barometer and a chart from 1915 (Zambretti) | 57° / 43° | 40 % | changeable mending |
| The intern | analogs: past days that looked like today, and what came next | 59° / 43° | 67 % | like 19 Oct, 25 Oct, 17 Oct |
“For tomorrow: the reference observers say 52°/45°, 3% rain. Vell's model says 50°/42°, 3% rain. Orm's barometer says 57°/43°, 40% rain. The intern says 59°/43°, 67% rain. We have no better idea and are saying so in a smaller font.”
Four forecasters, each a different method, graded every day against the instrument. The reference observers: the National Weather Service. Vell: the ECMWF global model, read carefully. Orm: the barometer, its trend, and a chart from 1915. The intern: analogs, which is to say looking for past days that resembled today and reporting what happened next; weak with a short record, better every month. One point each for the high within 3°, the low within 3°, and rain or no rain. 0 days graded so far; nothing can be graded until a forecast has had a chance to be wrong.
Recent days, with what each forecaster said the day before.
| Day | Observed | Reference | Vell | Orm | Intern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing graded yet. Come back tomorrow. We will still be here. We are always here. | |||||